Can you believe football season is almost upon us already? The AFL’s pre-season competition begins in just over a week but I want to look at the market to make the top four, where if you do your homework you could find some value.
In every season this millennium, bar two, a team has come from outside the previous year’s top eight to finish the home and away season in the top four. (In 2010 we saw the same top four as the year before, while in 2009 Collingwood rose from eighth to fourth, so it was a close thing.)
This is important to know because last season it looked like the top five teams of Geelong, Collingwood, Hawthorn, West Coast and Carlton were well clear of the pack. Yet West Coast themselves were wooden spooners the year before.
Other top four teams to come from outside the eight the previous year:
2008 – St. Kilda (9th in 2007), Western Bulldogs (13th)
2007 – Geelong (10th) and Port Adelaide (12th) played off in the grand final; North Melbourne (14th)
2006 – Fremantle (10th)
2005 – Adelaide (finished top after being 12th in 2004)
2004 – St. Kilda (11th), Geelong (12th)
2003 – Sydney (11th)
2002 – Collingwood (9th)
2001 – Richmond (9th), Port Adelaide (14th)
2000 – Melbourne (14th)
This would suggest we can expect to see a team that missed the finals last year to catapult into the top four this year. Fremantle was tipped to do so by many last season but had a horrible run with injuries to finish 11th. The Dockers have a mature list and a good run with injuries would make them the most likely. Otherwise North Melbourne (9th) and Richmond (12th) are developing teams that have now had two years under coaches Brad Scott and Damien Hardwick respectively, and one of them could be ready to take the next step.
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