The Baron’s Racing and Sports Bets 24/07/13

Today’s racing is at Sandown, Eagle Farm, Belmont, Gawler, Devonport and Canterbury, where The Baron is pulling Pleiades (R4) out of his Black Book.

Today’s sport includes Major League Baseball, tennis and World Matchplay Darts, while The Baron is backing West Indies to beat Pakistan in their 5th ODI tonight.

Pleiades (Race 4, No.9) really caught The Baron’s eye first-up at Canterbury and went straight into his black book for next start.

The Peter Snowden-trained three-year-old got a long way back in the run but hit the line hard over 1100m to dead heat for third. The step up to 1250m suits now, while she proved last run that she handles heavy tracks.

Well-bred, being by Redoute’s Choice out of a Zabeel mare (Steflara – who won the 2006 G3 Breeders Classic over 1200m), The Baron expects her to be contesting better races than 0 Metro Win midweekers in the future. Although only lightly raced (4:1-0-2), her maiden win had merit as finishing second was subsequent Group-placed filly Unimpeachable, while Eight Skirts (whom she meets again here) finished third.

Last start she was $8 out to $17 in betting and although The Baron isn’t expecting her odds to be as juicy today, he’s still expecting a price that would see the trucks overflowing. She’ll just need a clever ride from Christian Reith from the tricky draw.

Confidence Level:

Recommended Price: $6.00

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Courageousnquick (Race 1, No.4) is a speedy filly who The Baron expects to adopt her favourite role in front, and if she does she will take no end of running down.

Last time out, she tackled the Group 1 Vicbred final and after finding the early lead she got attacked the entire race, and not surprisingly got tired late. It also pays to ignore the fact that a couple in this race actually beat her home last time as it was only as a result of the pressure that she wilted and it is difficult to see any pressure being applied if she does lead as expected in this easier affair.

With regular driver Rodney Petroff out suspended, Nathan Jack takes over and he is very adept at getting horses to leave the mobile quickly, so the change is of no concern whatsoever.

This filly has a great record, with 11 wins from 21 starts, and The Baron is extremely confident she will add to that tally in this event.

Confidence Level:

Recommended Price: $2.00

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Vapourash (Race 5, No.1) is an explosive beginner and The Baron doesn’t expect him to give his rivals a chance tonight.

A reliable beginner, box 1 suits this black dog perfectly, particularly with slow beginners drawn on his immediate outside. He’ll ping the lids, power to the front and take catching over the 450m journey. He has placed his last 2 starts but both were over 513m, whereas the 2 starts prior, over 450m, he romped home by a combined margin of 11.5L.

His biggest danger when the fields came out looked to be the promising Wave Burst but he has been scratched. All going to plan, it should be a painless watch for Vapourash’s backers.

Confidence Level:

Recommended Price: $1.80

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West Indies and Pakistan are evenly-matched teams and The Baron is predicting the Windies will win Game 5 and level the series 2-all (Game 3 was a tie).

The Baron believes the West Indies have the better batting line-up, with Chris Gayle, Marlon Samuels, the Bravo brothers and Jonson Charles. Pakistan is relying on veterans Misbah-ul-Haq, Mohammed Hafeez and Shahid Afridi.

West Indies also has one of the best limited-overs bowlers in the world in mystery spinner Sunil Narine. He combines with paceman Kemar Roach and the reliable Darren Sammy and Dwayne Bravo to form a solid attack. Pakistan depends on Saeed Ajmal and Afridi again, but has more weak points that the strong Windies batting can target.

Confidence Level:

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